World: IGC raises its grain crop forecast as wheat and maize prices fall
In its monthly market report of October 15, the International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for world grain production (wheat and coarse grains) in 2026/27 by 7 million tonnes to 2,427 million tonnes. The increase mainly reflects maize, and the barley outlook has also improved. At the same time, export prices for grains and oilseeds fell over the month: the IGC's overall index dropped by 4%.
Key figures
- Grain crop: 2,427m t
- +7m t in a month
- −68m t year on year
- Stocks: 619m t (+11)
- IGC price index: −4%
- Maize −7%, wheat −5%
What changed
Compared with its September forecast, the IGC added 7 million tonnes to its estimate of the world grain crop — mostly maize, with the barley outlook also improving. Carry-in stocks were revised higher while grain consumption was raised by only 2 million tonnes, so most of the extra supply goes into closing stocks: they are put at 619 million tonnes, 11 million tonnes more than in September. The world grain trade forecast was cut by 1 million tonnes to 450 million tonnes because of another reduction for wheat.
By the numbers
Even after the increase, the world grain crop in 2026/27 will be 68 million tonnes smaller than last year: 40 million tonnes less maize, 25 million tonnes less wheat and 4 million tonnes more barley. Grain consumption is expected at a record 2,446 million tonnes, and closing stocks 19 million tonnes lower than a year ago. World trade (July–June) will shrink by 17 million tonnes: wheat by 15 million tonnes and barley by 7 million tonnes, while maize trade grows by 6 million tonnes. The soybean crop is forecast at a record (+2%) thanks to an expected record in the US and large crops in South America; world soybean imports are seen at 190 million tonnes, an all-time high.
Prices over the month
The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) fell by 4%. The wheat sub-index dropped by 5% on cheaper North American offers, slow US export progress, currency moves and spillover from maize. The maize sub-index fell by 7%, pressed by expectations of ample supply, including two USDA reports the market read as bearish. Soybeans eased by 3% on disappointment over the outcome of US-China talks and a good start to planting in Brazil. Rice, by contrast, rose by 2% over the month and by 21% over the year.
What it means for buyers
World export prices are a benchmark for grain prices inside Kazakhstan and Ukraine and for farm incomes. According to the IGC, wheat and maize got cheaper on the world market over the month, even though this season's world grain crop is smaller than last year's and trade in wheat and barley is shrinking. These figures are worth keeping in mind when a farm plans its crop sales and its budget for the spring season — seed, parts and machinery.
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