World: USDA raises its world wheat stocks forecast to 280.8 million tons and cuts Ukraine and Russia exports by 1 million tons each

The U.S. Department of Agriculture published its November WASDE report on November 10, its estimates of supply and demand on world farm markets. The forecast for 2026/27 world wheat ending stocks was raised to 280.8 million tons, while exports from Ukraine and Russia were each cut by 1.0 million tons. The expected U.S. price for wheat and corn was lowered.

Key figures

• Wheat stocks: 280.8 Mt
• Ukraine exports: 11.5 Mt
• Russia exports: 39.0 Mt
• Kazakhstan crop: 15.8 Mt
• U.S. wheat: $6.20/bushel
• U.S. corn: $4.60/bushel

What changed

World wheat supply for 2026/27 was raised by 6.4 million tons to 1,110.4 million tons, mainly on higher crops in Argentina, Australia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. Consumption rose by 1.7 million tons to 829.6 million, while world trade was cut by 0.3 million tons to 208.7 million. The reason is lower exports from Russia and Ukraine: USDA says shipments from both countries remain below long-term averages despite the use of alternative ports and routes.

In figures

Wheat, 2026/27, changes October → November, million tons:

• Crop: Kazakhstan 15.0 → 15.8; Ukraine 26.0 → 26.5; Argentina 21.5 → 23.0; Australia 31.0 → 32.5.
• Exports: Russia 40.0 → 39.0; Ukraine 12.5 → 11.5; Kazakhstan 9.5 (unchanged).
• Ending stocks: world 276.0 → 280.8; Ukraine 6.1 → 7.3; Kazakhstan 2.0 → 2.5.
• U.S. wheat: the average farm price was lowered from $6.30 to $6.20 per bushel; ending stocks are 743 million bushels, 19% below last year.
• U.S. corn: crop 15.9 billion bushels (141 million less), yield 179.6 bushels per acre, price cut by $0.10 to $4.60 per bushel. Soybeans: price raised by $0.10 to $12.10 per bushel.

What this means for the buyer

For farms in Kazakhstan and Ukraine the picture is mixed. Larger crops and stocks combined with lower Ukrainian exports mean more grain may stay on the domestic market, which usually weighs on prices, so it is sensible to plan revenue cautiously when budgeting a machinery purchase. In Argentina and Brazil USDA raised its corn crop estimates (57.0 and 141.0 million tons), which adds supply to the world market. Anyone planning to renew their fleet should build conservative grain prices into the budget and agree delivery timing for U.S. machinery in advance.

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), WASDE report, November 10, 2026