Brazil: Conab's second survey puts the 2026/27 grain crop at 366.1 million tonnes — wheat down 33.2%

Brazil's national supply company Conab on 13 November published its second survey of the 2026/27 grain crop: 366.1 million tonnes from 85.3 million hectares. Area is up 1.9 million ha on 2025/26, while average yield is about 1% lower.

Key figures

• 366.1 Mt of grain
• Area 85.3 million ha
• Soybeans: 181.6 Mt
• Corn: 148 Mt
• Wheat: 5.3 Mt, −33.2%
• Rice: 10.6 Mt

What changed

In its second survey Conab estimates the grain and pulse harvest at 366.1 million tonnes at an average yield of 4,290 kg/ha. Area rose by 1.9 million ha, with cotton named among the growth drivers. Spring planting continues: soybeans were 66.8% planted by the first week of November, and 95.6% in Mato Grosso.

The figures

Main crops in Conab's estimate:

• Soybeans: 49.3 million ha, yield 3,683 kg/ha, about 181.6 Mt.
• Corn (all three crops): 23.7 million ha (+4.9%), about 148 Mt, yield 2.3% lower. First crop: 4.5 million ha (+10.7%), 32.1 Mt; area in the Center-West is up 29.5%.
• Rice: 1.5 million ha (−0.8%), about 10.6 Mt; irrigated area −2.4%, rainfed +7%.
• Beans: 2.9 Mt (−1.8%).
• Winter crops: area −10.7% (from 3.35 to about 3 million ha), wheat 5.3 Mt (−33.2%), harvest over 78% complete. Causes: smaller area and weather in Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul.

Exports and stocks

Conab puts 2025/26 corn exports at about 40.9 Mt (−6.8% versus the previous survey) and 2026/27 at about 43 Mt. Corn carry-over stocks at the end of January 2027 are 19 Mt. Wheat stocks were revised because of higher domestic consumption, including feed: 955.5 thousand t from the 2025 crop and 436.5 thousand t from the 2026 crop.

What this means for the buyer

For a Brazilian farm, more area under soybeans and corn means more work at planting and harvest: with overall yield below last year's, the advantage goes to whoever harvests on time and without losses. The small wheat crop and low stocks are a reason to plan the winter acreage cautiously. Soybean planting is already under way, so it is best to discuss ordering a combine, header or sprayer from the USA with delivery before the season peaks.

Source: Conab (Brazil's National Supply Company), 13 November 2026