World: wheat export prices fell 6% in October, El Niño is strengthening and phosphate fertilizers stay tight — AMIS

The Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), run by ten international organizations with its secretariat at FAO, released its November market review on November 6. Wheat, corn and soybeans got cheaper in October, while rice rose. Markets are well supplied overall, but weather and policy risks remain.

Key figures

• Wheat: −6% in October
• Corn: −6.5% month on month
• El Niño through April 2027
• Kazakh yields beat forecast
• Phosphates in short supply
• Grain freight: −5.3%

What changed

Average wheat export prices fell 6% in October to a three-month low, despite continued Black Sea shipping disruptions. Expectations of large Southern Hemisphere crops weighed on the market. The 2026 world wheat production forecast was raised, in part thanks to better-than-expected yields in Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine. World wheat stocks at the end of the 2026/27 season are expected to reach a record.

By the numbers

October changes according to AMIS:

• Wheat price index 212.5: −6.1% month on month, +10.0% year on year.
• Corn 220.5: −6.5% month on month; soybeans 250.0: −4.1%; rice 192.3: +3.7%.
• IGC Grains and Oilseeds Freight Index (GOFI) 181.7: −5.3% month on month, +13.1% year on year; Black Sea sub-index −4.4%.
• A strong El Niño is expected to last through April 2027, with a 98% probability per NOAA.

Fertilizers

Fertilizer prices were little changed in October. Urea is easing thanks to Chinese exports, while phosphate fertilizers remain tight because of limited supply, and high prices relative to grain prices are holding back demand. For potash, prices are expected to fall as new capacity comes online in 2027. Logistics through the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea remain difficult.

What it means for buyers

For farms in Kazakhstan and Ukraine this is a signal to plan carefully: grain is getting cheaper, phosphate fertilizers are not. AMIS reports that Ukraine's winter crops are in good condition but slightly behind because of late sowing, and the sown area is expected to be smaller than last year. El Niño usually brings more rain to Central Asia, which is worth keeping in mind when planning spring work.

Source: AMIS (Agricultural Market Information System) — Market Monitor No. 143, November 2026