Ukraine: alternative routes carry only 45–50% of the needed exports, an extra $50–70 per tonne — farm losses may reach $7.5 bn

On 12 November Ukraine's Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food, Taras Vysotskyi, told two international events what restricted sea exports cost farmers. According to the ministry, alternative routes handle only 45–50% of the required volumes, and additional losses for the sector could reach $7.5 bn over a marketing year.

Key figures

• Ports gave 90% of exports
• Detour: 2.5 of 5 m t
• +$50–70 per tonne freight
• Losses up to $7.5 bn
• ≈ €1.1 bn support needed
• Idea: compensation in EU

What changed

Before the situation worsened, about 90% of Ukraine's exports of grain, oilseeds and processed products went through Black Sea ports; those options are now unavailable. The Danube, rail and road allow about 2.5 million tonnes of farm products to be shipped per month against a need of over 5 million tonnes. According to the minister, increasing these volumes significantly is physically almost impossible.

In figures

The ministry's estimates given on 12 November:

• Extra transport costs of about $50–70 per tonne, up to $80 on some routes.
• Additional burden on producers of about $2.4 bn a year.
• Total additional losses under a prolonged restriction of up to $7.5 bn per marketing year.
• Support needed to cheapen logistics in the current marketing year: about €1.1 bn (≈ $1.2 bn).

What is proposed

Ukraine asks partners to consider compensating the extra logistics costs — either as direct aid to farmers or by paying for transport inside the EU. The aim, in the minister's words, is to lower freight costs so that the prices producers receive at least cover production cost. Ukraine also proposes simplifying the administration of some tariff quotas in trade with the EU, in particular for dairy and flour. About 5 million Ukrainians receive payments linked to the farm sector, and agricultural activity provides about 20% of local budget revenue.

What this means for the buyer

Expensive logistics reaches the farm through lower purchase prices: according to the minister, farmers in effect bear these costs themselves. For a farm selling 1,000 tonnes of grain, $50–70 per tonne means $50–70 thousand of lost revenue a year (a simple calculation from the ministry's figures). So when planning a machinery purchase, build in a revenue cushion and compare a machine's price with what it actually delivers. Used John Deere machines from the USA are one way to renew a fleet with a clear budget.

Source: Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, 12 November 2026