World: FAO expects global wheat trade to shrink by 8.6% while grain stocks grow

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) updated its cereal supply and demand balance on November 6. The 2026 world cereal harvest is estimated at 2,999 million tons: below the 2025 record, but the second-largest in history. The main news for exporters is that world wheat trade in the 2026/27 season will shrink by 18.1 million tons, or 8.6%.

Key figures

• Harvest: 2,999 million t
• Wheat: 819 million t, −2.8%
• Wheat trade: −8.6%
• Corn trade: +2.2%
• Stocks: +17.2 million t
• Stocks-to-use: 32.4%

What changed

According to FAO, production will decline for all major crops, most of all for wheat: 819 million tons versus 842.5 million a year earlier. Coarse grains will be almost unchanged. The rice crop will shrink for the first time in four seasons — by 2.5%, to 552 million tons, because of low profitability and unfavorable weather. World cereal trade will fall by 3.3%, to 507.7 million tons: wheat shipments are declining for all major exporters because of grain shortages or logistical constraints.

In numbers

FAO forecast for the 2026/27 season:

• Cereal consumption: 2,971 million tons, +0.2%; 6.5 million tons less will go to feed.
• Wheat trade: 193.2 million tons, −18.1 million tons.
• Corn trade: +4.5 million tons (+2.2%) thanks to large stocks in Argentina.
• Barley trade will decline, while rice trade will grow by 2.9%, to 61.6 million tons.
• World cereal stocks by the close of seasons in 2027: 974.7 million tons, +17.2 million tons.

Context

Stocks are growing mainly because of wheat in Russia and Ukraine, where export difficulties are causing grain to accumulate domestically. There will also be more corn in South America and more barley in Australia and Ukraine. The world stocks-to-use ratio is 32.4%, slightly above last season. FAO will release a detailed analysis in its Food Outlook report on November 19.

What it means for buyers

For farms in Kazakhstan and Ukraine, the picture is this: there is less wheat in the world, but less of it is being bought, while stocks at neighboring exporters are growing. This holds back wheat prices and intensifies competition for buyers, whereas demand for corn in world trade is rising. When planning the 2027 sowing campaign, it is worth comparing the profitability of wheat, corn and oilseeds in advance and preparing seed and machinery for the chosen crop mix: a combine with the right header, a sprayer, a seeder.

Source: FAO — Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations